From 2nm breakthroughs to rising wafer costs, smartphone chipmakers set to face declining shipments in 2026 even as advanced nodes surge to capture 60% market share.
Global smartphone system-on-chip (SoC) shipments are set to shift significantly towards advanced nodes, with their share projected to reach nearly 60 per cent in 2026, according to Counterpoint Research.
In 2025, advanced nodes (5nm and below) accounted for more than half of total shipments, driven by demand for improved performance, energy efficiency, and AI capabilities.
Among the vendors, Samsung led the transition with its 2nm Exynos 2600 powering the Galaxy S26, while Apple, Qualcomm, and MediaTek are adopting 2nm designs through Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), which has begun mass production.
Despite this migration, overall smartphone SoC shipments are expected to decline by double digits in 2026 due to memory supply constraints. However, shipments of 3nm and 2nm nodes are forecast to grow 18 per cent year-on-year, representing nearly one in three smartphones sold.
Senior Analyst Shivani Parashar at Counterpoint noted: “Samsung is emerging as an early adopter of the 2nm process node, similar to how Apple previously led the transition to the 3nm node. Its gradual increase in in-house chipset adoption in mid-range smartphones is intensifying competitive pressure on Qualcomm and MediaTek.”
The move to 2nm will also raise costs. Wafer prices for N2 are estimated to be around 30 per cent higher than N3, pushing up flagship SoC pricing. Vendors are unlikely to absorb these increases, meaning consumers may face higher device prices. Nevertheless, advanced nodes are expected to generate more than 86 per cent of smartphone SoC revenues in 2026.
Counterpoint’s Principal Analyst Soumen Mandal added: “The rising wafer cost and design complexity are limiting broad migration and confining leading nodes to premium smartphones, while mid-range smartphones are starting to adopt advanced nodes.”
Meanwhile, TSMC continues to dominate the foundry market with over 86 per cent share, though competition from Samsung Foundry and SMIC is gradually increasing.
