A seismic shift in tech’s biggest rivalry, Apple is set to dominate the smartphone market, outpacing Samsung by 75 million units by 2034.
Apple is projected to extend its lead over Samsung in global smartphone shipments significantly over the next decade, with the gap expected to widen to 74.7 million units by 2034.
This marks a dramatic fifteenfold increase from just 4.7 million units in 2024, as forecasted by AltIndex based on trends from International Data Corporation’s (IDC) quarterly data.
After over a decade of Samsung dominance, 2023 marked a pivotal moment—Apple surpassed the South Korean company in annual shipments for the first time. This shift signals a major transformation in the smartphone landscape, as Apple consolidates its position amid Samsung’s ongoing decline.
In 2024, Apple shipped 230.2 million units compared to Samsung’s 225.5 million, establishing a lead of 4.7 million units. This gap is forecasted to grow yearly, reaching 11.7 million in 2025, 18.7 million in 2026, and 25.7 million in 2027.
By 2029, Apple is expected to be 39.7 million units ahead, further widening to 53.7 million in 2031, 67.7 million in 2033, and finally hitting 74.7 million in 2034.
Source: IDC Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker
The report predicts that Samsung’s annual shipments will drop consistently from 218.5 million units in 2025 to 173.5 million by 2034, a decrease of 45 million units over ten years. This reflects a steady annual drop of around 5 million units.
In contrast, Apple’s shipments are projected to grow gradually from 230.2 million in 2025 to 248.2 million by 2034, an increase of 18 million units, averaging around 2 million additional units per year.
Source: Altindex analysis based on trends seen in IDC Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker data
This contrasting trajectory is largely due to strategic and market forces. Samsung has shifted focus to premium devices like the Galaxy S and Z series, reducing its footprint in the budget segment. This has allowed competitors such as Xiaomi, Oppo, and Vivo to capture price-sensitive markets.
Meanwhile, Apple has strengthened its position through robust ecosystem integration, long-term software support, and rising popularity in emerging markets, especially India.
Q1 2025 figures further illustrate this trend. Samsung shipped 60.6 million smartphones, up just 0.6% year-on-year, while its market share declined to 19.9%. Apple, however, shipped 57.9 million units—up 10%—increasing its share to 19%.
Unless Samsung can reverse its declining trend, Apple is poised to dominate the global smartphone market in the coming decade.
