With an ambitious forecast, global IoT connectivity looks promising as 5G RedCap, eRedCap, and automotive growth push cellular IoT connections toward 5.9 billion by 2035.
Cellular Internet of Things (IoT) connections are set for steep growth, reaching 5.9 billion units by 2035, according to new forecasts from research firm Omdia. The report said the surge will be driven by rapid advances in 5G technologies and the continued evolution of mid-tier connectivity options.
Three technologies have been identified as central to this expansion: 5G RedCap, 5G Massive IoT and 4G LTE Cat-1bis modules. Together, they are expected to reshape the global IoT landscape over the next decade.
Omdia highlighted 5G RedCap as a major inflection point. Adoption is expected to accelerate from 2025 as RedCap positions itself as the ideal mid-tier connectivity layer. It supports 5G devices that do not require the high-end capabilities of ultra-reliable low-latency communications or enhanced mobile broadband. Its role will grow as operators begin phasing out 4G networks beyond 2030.
Meanwhile, RedCap uptake has been slower than anticipated. However, momentum improved in 2025 with the release of the latest Apple Watch range, which features RedCap connectivity. It is expected that the next wave of growth will come from 5G eRedCap modules, scheduled for launch in 2026. These modules will broaden the technology’s use cases and drive additional cellular IoT connections.
Alexander Thompson, Senior Analyst for IoT at Omdia, said the integration of RedCap in Apple’s devices has “signalled the starting gun” for wider adoption. He noted that enterprises will soon have a growing range of connectivity options to match diverse application needs.
The forecast also points to a major expansion in automotive IoT. Connections in this segment are expected to rise from 500 million today to 1.2 billion by 2035. This will boost automotive’s share of total cellular IoT connections from 13 per cent to 21 per cent. Asia and Oceania will drive most of this increase, supported by rising demand for intelligent, 5G-enabled vehicles.
Andrew Brown, IoT Practice Lead at Omdia, said software-defined vehicles, regulatory requirements and vehicle-to-everything communication will cement automotive’s role, with vehicles expected to make up one in five cellular IoT connections by 2035.
