Rising memory costs, Windows 11 upgrades and Apple’s bold $599 MacBook Neo shape a turbulent 2026 PC market, with shipments forecast to fall 5%.
Worldwide PC shipments are expected to decline 5% year‑on‑year in 2026, reaching 262 million units, according to Counterpoint Research’s forecast. The downturn is attributed primarily to rising memory prices, which are forcing manufacturers to increase consumer prices and dampening demand.
Despite this, the PC sector remains more resilient than other consumer electronics categories. Analysts point to a strong replacement cycle, with a large share of the installed base eligible for Windows 11 upgrades. Microsoft’s continued push for operating system migration is acting as a catalyst for hardware refresh.
Among the vendors, Lenovo, HP and Dell are projected to record mid‑single‑digit shipment declines. Dell is expected to fare better than its peers, supported by its focus on commercial and premium segments, which are less sensitive to price increases. Apple, meanwhile, is positioned for growth. The company plans to launch its first $599 laptop, the MacBook Neo, targeting the budget and education markets. Apple is also preparing to release its first OLED‑based laptop later in the year, further diversifying its portfolio.
ASUS, Acer and tier‑two brands are forecast to suffer steeper declines due to their reliance on low‑end segments, where price sensitivity is higher. Smaller procurement volumes may also weaken their bargaining power, leaving them more exposed to supply chain pressures.
Senior Analyst Minsoo Kang noted, “The continuous surge in memory prices is forcing PC OEMs into a difficult choice; absorb margin compression or pass the costs on to consumers.”
He added that shipment volumes are projected to fall 5% despite some uplift in average selling prices.
Associate Director David Naranjo said supply‑side pressures from DRAM and NAND shortages will persist into 2026. He expects easing toward the end of the year, with AI‑capable PCs from Intel, AMD and Qualcomm providing momentum.
By 2027, modest growth could return, supported by continued demand for AI‑enabled systems.
