Tariffs loom, demand cools, and competition heats up—2025 smartphone shipments may reach only 1.24 billion units, as China and the US lead a fragile recovery amid global economic uncertainty.
Global smartphone shipments are projected to rise by just 0.6% year-on-year in 2025, reaching 1.24 billion units, according to the latest figures from the International Data Corporation (IDC).
The revised forecast, down from an earlier 2.3% estimate, reflects growing uncertainty in global markets, along with the impact of inflation, unemployment, and shifting consumer behaviour.
IDC’s report suggests that the long-term picture remains modest, with an expected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of just 1.4% between 2024 and 2029.
Factors such as lengthening upgrade cycles, increased smartphone saturation, and the growing market for refurbished devices are dampening prospects for significant growth.
Despite these headwinds, China and the United States are expected to drive the limited growth in 2025. China is forecast to grow by 3% year-on-year, aided by government subsidies aimed at boosting demand, particularly for Android models.
However, Apple is expected to see a 1.9% decline in China, as most of its models fall outside the subsidy limit of 6,000 Yuan and face pressure from rising local competitors like Huawei.
In the US, smartphone shipments are expected to grow 1.9%, revised down from an earlier 3.3% projection due to rising trade tensions with China and related price increases.
Still, the US market has been cushioned by its carrier-driven model, which relies heavily on device trade-ins and zero-interest payment schemes to stimulate demand.
IDC analysts also flagged rising concerns around potential tariff hikes on smartphones manufactured outside the US.
While current exemptions on smartphones have offered temporary relief, the looming possibility of broader tariffs presents a serious risk,” said Nabila Popal, senior research director with IDC.
These changes, if enacted, could introduce tariffs of up to 30% and significantly affect pricing and supply chain strategies. While countries like India and Vietnam are emerging as alternatives for smartphone production, manufacturers are bracing for continued uncertainty.
With new flagship devices due in the second half of 2025, manufacturers are hoping premium launches can offset broader market softness.
