Powered by GenAI, premium designs, and foldables, the smartphone market is expected to inch up in 2025, with a 1% growth to 1.24 billion units, despite China’s slowdown.
Global smartphone shipments are expected to rise 1% year-on-year (YoY) in 2025 to 1.24 billion units, according to a recent data released by the International Data Corporation (IDC). According to the report, this is an improvement over an earlier projection of 0.6%, helped by a 3.9% growth in iOS shipments.
Despite economic headwinds and soft demand, replacement purchases are expected to sustain growth through 2026. The market is forecast to record a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.5% from 2024 to 2029.
The total addressable market (TAM) has also inched higher, aided by a U.S. government exemption shielding smartphones from additional tariffs.
“While tariff volatility continues to pose high uncertainty, for now it is just background noise for the majority of smartphone vendors,” said Nabila Popal, senior research director at IDC.
“OEMs must push forward their diversification and production plans to ensure there are enough shipments to fulfil demand, which remains healthy in most markets, in select segments,” she stated.
The report expects 3.6% growth in the US, 6.5% in the Middle East and Africa, and 0.8% in Asia Pacific excluding China in 2025. China is projected to decline by 1%, down from an earlier 3% growth estimate, as government subsidies fade.
Although shipment growth is modest, average selling prices (ASPs) are set to rise 5%, with overall market value increasing 6% in 2025. Vendors are focusing on slimmer designs, GenAI features, foldable form factors, and advanced cameras to attract consumers.
“GenAI continues to be a significant focus,” said Anthony Scarsella, research director at IDC. “We forecast 370 million GenAI smartphones in 2025, making up 30% of shipments. By 2029, that share will exceed 70%.”
Foldables are also maturing. Francisco Jeronimo, IDC vice president, said the segment is set for 6% annual growth in 2025, rising to 11% in 2027, though remaining below 3% of global shipments by 2029.
