Rising memory costs are reshaping the OLED market, stalling smartphone growth in 2026 while IT-focused panels for notebooks, tablets, and monitors surge ahead.
Global OLED panel shipments are forecast to remain flat year-on-year in 2026, following a 3% increase in 2025, according to Counterpoint Research. The slowdown is largely attributed to rising memory costs, which are expected to hit smartphone demand hardest, particularly in mid-range and entry-level devices where bill of materials (BoM) sensitivity is greatest.
Smartphone OLED shipments are projected to decline by 3% in 2026. Within this segment, foldable OLED panels are expected to grow 34% year-on-year, down from earlier estimates of 46%, driven by new models from Apple and Samsung.
Flexible OLED panels are forecast to remain flat, while rigid OLED shipments are set to fall 15%. Analysts note that manufacturers are prioritising higher-margin devices to offset component inflation, limiting volumes in more price-sensitive tiers.
“This is shifting OLED growth toward foldable and premium flexible OLED devices, while rigid OLED demand is expected to decline as OEMs rebalance portfolios and control costs,” noted Tom Someya, Senior Analyst at Counterpoint.
In contrast, IT-focused OLED applications are expected to expand. OLED monitors are projected to grow 45% year-on-year, notebooks 33%, and tablets 13%. Growth in notebooks will be supported by Apple’s transition to OLED displays in MacBook Pro models and the rise of premium AI PCs, where higher average selling prices help absorb rising component costs.
The automotive OLED sector is also expected to grow, though forecasts have been revised downward due to cost pressures and softer production outlooks.
Associate Director at Counterpoint, David Naranjo added that memory inflation is forcing manufacturers to focus on higher-margin categories, even as IT OLED applications continue to expand.
The findings underline how cost dynamics are reshaping the $50 billion OLED market, with smartphones facing headwinds while IT and automotive applications sustain growth.
