Rising 1.5% in Q1 2025, smartphone shipments were driven by pre-tariff stockpiling, not demand. Apple soared, OPPO slipped, and uncertainty still clouds the industry.
The global smartphone market saw a modest 1.5% year-on-year (YoY) growth in the first quarter of 2025, reaching 304.9 million units shipped, according to a report by International Data Corporation (IDC).
While this marks a step forward for an industry that has faced multiple quarters of volatility, the growth was driven mainly by supply-side manoeuvring in response to geopolitical tensions, rather than surging consumer demand.
As per the report, manufacturers accelerated production and shipments ahead of a potential wave of new U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports. This pre-emptive move inflated shipment numbers, especially into the U.S., where vendors sought to avoid sudden cost hikes and potential disruption.
Francisco Jeronimo, Vice President for Client Devices at IDC, said, “This supply-side surge, aimed at mitigating potential cost increases and disruptions, effectively inflated Q1 shipment figures beyond levels anticipated based on underlying consumer demand trends alone.”
The US, in particular, experienced a more than 5% increase in smartphone shipments, supported by heightened consumer interest in new models and fears of impending price rises.
Ryan Reith, Group Vice President at IDC, noted, “The temporary pause on smartphone import tariffs offers some relief, but U.S. vendors remain heavily dependent on China’s supply chain, which keeps long-term planning riddled with uncertainty.”
Apple had a record-breaking Q1 in terms of shipments, achieving a 10% increase year-on-year, driven by aggressive stockpiling and strong global channel distribution. However, its sales in China weakened due to the exclusion of high-end Pro models from the government’s subsidy programme.
Samsung retained the top spot, with steady performance supported by its flagship Galaxy S25 and the mid-range Galaxy A36 and A56, which integrated AI features at more accessible price points.
Chinese vendors, including Xiaomi and vivo, benefited from a government-backed subsidy programme extended in January 2025. The initiative, targeting devices under CNY 6,000 ($820), bolstered mid-range sales, especially within the domestic market.
Xiaomi recorded 2.5% growth, while vivo rose by 6.3%. Despite regaining its global fourth-place ranking, OPPO posted a 6.8% decline due to weaker international sales.
Despite the headline growth, IDC analysts warn that the underlying consumer demand remains fragile. Businesses and vendors must stay agile as the industry continues to navigate global economic uncertainty, tariff volatility, and shifting consumer priorities.
The next quarters will be critical in determining whether the recovery is sustainable or simply the result of strategic stockpiling.
