Muted US PC sales slip 1.4% in Q2 as vendors clear stock; modest growth ahead hinges on Windows 11 upgrades and AI-driven commercial demand.
Personal computer (PC) shipments in the United States slipped 1.4% year-on-year (YoY) to 18.6 million units in the second quarter of 2025, according to new data from Canalys, part of Omdia.
The decline reflects efforts by vendors to manage high inventory levels after frontloading shipments earlier in the year to hedge against possible tariffs.
Despite the slowdown, the outlook for 2025 and 2026 remains positive, with the data forecasting 3% annual growth in both years. Much of this will be supported by the ongoing transition to Windows 11, which is expected to fuel replacement demand across both commercial and consumer markets.
Coming back to Q2, the commercial segment in US market provided a bright spot, growing shipments by 4% and offsetting weak consumer demand. Microsoft and its hardware partners are increasing campaigns around the October Windows 10 end-of-support deadline, particularly to encourage adoption of AI-ready PCs.
Greg Davis, Analyst at Canalys, said AI adoption among US businesses has been robust. “Business adoption of AI has more than doubled over the last two years, with a 50% increase in usage this year alone,” he noted.
However, he added that growth momentum slowed in the summer as larger firms faced challenges moving beyond pilot projects. “Vendors must demonstrate how AI-capable PCs can deliver tangible workflow improvements,” Davis said.
Consumers, on the other hand, remain cautious. Persistent inflation and weak job reports have pressured spending, with essentials prioritised over premium devices. Davis said many households are holding back PC purchases until performance drops significantly or hardware fails, even with the Windows 10 deadline approaching.
Canalys forecasts 71.0 million total US PC shipments in 2025, rising to 73.5 million in 2026 before dropping back to 70.8 million in 2027.
