Facing higher component costs and weak post-festive demand, India’s smartphone market is set for a sharper slowdown, with analysts cutting 2025 shipment forecasts below earlier estimates.
India’s smartphone market is reportedly set for a sharper slowdown than expected, as analysts revise shipment forecasts downward for 2025. According to a report by The Economic Times, rising component prices, weakening rupee, and post-festive price hikes are expected to weigh heavily on demand through the December quarter.
According to research firm International Data Corporation (IDC) India, total smartphone shipments for 2025 are now projected to fall below 150 million units, down from its earlier forecast of around 151 million.
The firm stated that, although the third quarter experienced a temporary boost during the festive season, the underlying market trend remains negative.
Analysts said that increasing component costs and unfavourable exchange rates have pushed brands to raise prices to recover margins after deep festival discounts. These factors will “severely” limit consumer demand and reduce shipments in the coming quarters, they said.
Another firm, Counterpoint Research, also revised its outlook, cutting its estimate to under 155 million units for the year, compared to 156 million previously. The firm expects shipments to decline by a single-digit percentage in the December quarter due to reduced consumer spending and low channel restocking.
Analysts there, noted that demand has fallen sharply after the festive season, with price increases on existing models dampening sales further. They added that many consumers are postponing purchases due to rising average selling prices (ASPs).
The most affected categories are expected to be entry-level and mid-range smartphones, where prices may rise by 5–7% due to more expensive memory components and other key parts. The brands are reportedly cautious about building up inventory before the new year, given the muted outlook.
While prices may continue to rise through the first half of 2026, both firms expect a modest recovery in the second half, driven by new launches and stabilising supply conditions.
