Surging solar and wind projects risk being stranded, as India’s transmission grid struggles to keep pace. Report says, this leaves almost 35GW renewable capacity exposed to curtailment.
India’s rapid expansion of renewable energy is facing a significant challenge, with reportedly more than 35 gigawatts (GW) of capacity at risk of curtailment by FY27 due to inadequate transmission infrastructure.
A Crisil Ratings report warned that solar and wind additions are outpacing grid evacuation capacity, creating a widening mismatch between generation and transmission.
The analysis estimates that around 20GW of new renewable projects will begin operations under temporary general network access (TGNA) in FY27, bringing the total to 17GW already dependent on TGNA.
This could leave 35-37GW of capacity exposed to curtailment, particularly during periods of grid congestion. Unlike long-term access, TGNA offers only limited rights, meaning projects are more vulnerable when transmission capacity is constrained.
India’s installed solar and wind capacity has reached approximately 200GW as of February 2026, but transmission expansion has lagged. Curtailment risks are most pronounced in Rajasthan and Gujarat, which together account for nearly half of India’s renewable generation.
In these states, TGNA-based projects have faced curtailment levels of up to 50%, with nearly 80% of total renewable curtailment between April and December 2025 attributed to TGNA projects.
According to the report, the financial impact could be considerable. Crisil estimates that sustained curtailment of 50% over a year could reduce debt service coverage ratios by up to 10 basis points and equity returns by up to 150 basis points.
However, near-term credit risks may be cushioned by loan moratoriums, sponsor support, and liquidity buffers.
Meanwhile, policy measures and technological solutions are being explored to ease grid congestion. Options include hour-split grid access, which allocates transmission capacity by generation type, and greater adoption of battery storage to balance surplus solar output.
Analysts note that while short-term risks may be contained, aligning transmission growth with renewable expansion remains critical for India’s clean energy ambitions.
