Soaring EV demand and Chinese supply curbs are primed to push lithium prices sharply higher in coming months.
Lithium prices are poised for gains as Chinese production restrictions and robust demand for electric vehicles (EVs) ease the global supply glut, analysts say. Research agency BMI, part of Fitch Solutions, has raised its 2025 average price forecasts to $10,100 per tonne for Chinese lithium carbonate and $9,700 per tonne for lithium hydroxide monohydrate.
Temporary production curbs in China, combined with ongoing global demand growth, have already pushed prices higher. Australia’s Office of the Chief Economist reported that spodumene concentrate prices surged from just above $600 per tonne in June to $1,000 in late August, before settling at around $820 in September. Lithium hydroxide prices rose nearly 20 per cent over the same period, reaching about $9,000 per tonne.
China’s enforcement of its Mineral Resources Law from July led to production halts at key projects, including CATL’s Jianxiawo mine, further fueling market concerns. Export curbs on lithium-ion battery supply chains announced in October briefly rattled the market before a temporary suspension eased regulatory uncertainty. Lithium carbonate futures in China climbed past 87,000 yuan ($12,248) per tonne in November, marking a 14-month high and a year-to-date increase of over 22 per cent.
Chilean miner SQM projects global lithium demand could rise more than 20 per cent in 2025, driven by EVs and energy storage. While BMI expects prices to moderate later in the year as supply returns, analysts warn that persistent tight supply and strong demand could sustain the current rally, posing upside risks to the market.
