Semiconductor revenues worldwide will see nominal growth this year at less than 1 per cent reaching $304 billion, according to the year-end 2012 update of the International Data Corporation (IDC) Semiconductor Applications Forecaster (SAF). The SAF also forecasts that semiconductor revenues will improve by 4.9% to $319 billion in 2013 and log a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.1 per cent from 2011-2016, reaching $368 billion in 2016.
Weakness in PC demand, DRAM and overall memory price deterioration, and semiconductor inventory rationalisation, coupled with continued global macroeconomic uncertainty from lower global GDP growth, a slowdown in China, the Eurozone debt crisis and recession, Japan’s recession, and ongoing fear of fiscal cliff negotiations’ impact on IT spending by corporations have all been levers affecting global semiconductor demand this year. Bright spots for the semiconductor market include smartphones, tablets, set-top boxes, and automotive electronics, which IDC expects will continue to be key drivers of growth over the coming years.
Regionally, Japan and Europe continue to be the two weakest regions. Although GDP growth has slowed in China, India, and Brazil, demand for smartphones, tablets, and automotive electronics remains strong. In the U.S., 4G phones, mobile consumer devices (tablets and e-readers), network infrastructure, and set-top box deployments will drive a healthy semiconductor growth cycle over the next five years.
