LEDs are typically known for their high power efficiency and longer life time and according to a recent IMS report, the market will peak at $13.5 billion in 2015 but will remain relatively flat post that. The reason for stagnant growth is mainly due to LED’s tendency to last longer.
The current market size of LED is projected to be about $10.9 billion, with $2.9 billion in lighting and $8.0 billion in all other applications and by 2015, the market is projected to reach $13.5 billion in 2015, with $5.8 billion in lighting, thereby doubling in three years and $7.7 billion in other areas.
According to IMS, the total packaged LED market is expected to fall towards the end of the decade, in terms of revenue, once the general lighting market has peaked. There are, however, a number of factors that could change the outlook, notably if adoption is slower than predicted over the next three or four years. In this alternative scenario, growth would be slower initially but could be maintained for a longer period throughout the decade.
On the overall front, the TV sector is the second largest market for packaged LEDs, which is expected to grow slightly from $2.0 billion in 2012 to $2.4 billion by 2016, as LED adoption rates increase throughout the time period just enough to overcome price erosion and the reduction of LEDs required for a given area.
LCD panel shipments are also estimated to increase slightly, while there is also the trend towards larger screens, one which has been ongoing for a number of years. However, the number of LEDs required for a given sized screen has also been decreasing more rapidly than had been previously expected.
For example, in the first quarter of 2012, the low cost TVs which were introduced used half the number of LEDs for a given area, and although overall LED TV penetration increased as a result, average LEDs per LCD TV actually fell from 175 in the fourth quarter of 2011 to 137 in the first quarter of 2012.
