As consumers face higher prices, will rising component costs and supply shortages derail notebook demand? A sharper double-digit market decline is now expected.
Global notebook computer shipments are projected to decline by around 13% in 2026 as rising component costs and supply constraints continue to affect consumer demand, according to market research firm TrendForce.
The revised forecast represents a more significant contraction than the 9.4% decline the Taipei-based researcher had predicted in early 2026. TrendForce Research Vice President Boyce Fan said that rising prices for memory chips and central processing units (CPUs) are expected to put additional pressure on notebook sales in the second half of 2026.
Notebook manufacturers have already begun adjusting pricing strategies in response to higher component costs. According to Fan, several major brands have raised retail prices and adjusted their product portfolios to protect margins. This includes placing greater focus on mid-range and premium devices, while reducing specifications on entry-level models.
Despite these measures, uncertainty surrounding demand remains elevated. Brands and supply chain partners continue to build inventory and accelerate shipments in anticipation of further increases in component prices. Fan warned that consumer purchasing activity and device replacement cycles could weaken further during the latter part of the year.
The market is also facing mounting pressure from memory supply shortages. TrendForce said memory suppliers have increasingly prioritised production for high-bandwidth memory and server-related applications, reducing availability for personal computer manufacturers and memory module suppliers.
As a result, conventional DRAM contract prices are expected to rise between 58 and 63 per cent in the current quarter compared with the previous quarter. NAND Flash contract prices are forecast to increase by 70 to 75 per cent over the same period.
The outlook also raises questions about the pace of adoption for AI-enabled personal computers. While AI PCs could eventually form part of a hybrid computing environment alongside cloud-based AI services, Fan said elevated memory prices and constrained supply remain obstacles to broader adoption.
He added that long-term demand for AI PCs will depend on whether emerging agentic AI applications can demonstrate practical benefits for users and sustain market interest.
