Your next smartphone will likely be powered by AI—but it could also cost more than you expected.
According to Counterpoint Research, GenAI-capable smartphones are expected to account for 45% of global smartphone shipments in 2026, up from 36% last year, as artificial intelligence becomes a standard feature across premium devices. By 2027, GenAI smartphones are projected to make up more than half of all global shipments, marking a major shift in the mobile market.
However, the rapid AI transition comes at a cost. Counterpoint expects global smartphone shipments to fall 13.9% year-on-year to 1.08 billion units in 2026, the lowest level on record, as soaring memory prices squeeze manufacturers and raise production costs.
Apple and Samsung continue to dominate the GenAI smartphone market, leveraging their premium portfolios and expanding AI capabilities across flagship devices. Apple’s upcoming iPhone 17 lineup is expected to bring GenAI features to nearly its entire smartphone portfolio, while Samsung has taken an early lead in deploying agentic AI features through its Galaxy AI ecosystem.
Counterpoint said GenAI has become standard in smartphones priced above $400 wholesale, but consumers are yet to see enough practical AI features to justify upgrading. The next phase of competition will focus less on hardware and more on AI experiences, with companies racing to deliver smarter virtual assistants, real-time translation, image editing and personalized services.
The research firm noted that Google’s Gemini has emerged as the dominant AI model powering premium smartphones globally, supporting Apple’s rebuilt Siri, Samsung’s Galaxy AI and several Chinese smartphone brands outside China. However, manufacturers continue to differentiate themselves through software integration, user experience and proprietary AI capabilities.
Looking ahead, Counterpoint expects rising memory costs to hit the budget smartphone segment the hardest, while premium AI phones remain more resilient. As memory supplies improve and on-device AI models become more efficient, GenAI capabilities are expected to expand into more affordable smartphones, making AI a mainstream feature across the industry.
