AI data centre expansion could strain global copper supply, with a potential 6 million-tonne shortfall projected by 2035 amid rising demand across industries.
Global copper demand could face increased strain from the rapid expansion of AI data centres, with a potential supply gap of 6 million tonnes by 2035, according to BloombergNEF (BNEF).
In the first quarter of 2025, copper demand rose approximately 3.3 percent compared with 2024. China led the increase, accounting for a six percent rise in demand despite an 11 percent fall in its net refined copper imports. Overall, refiners registered a 233,000‑tonne surplus through April, down from 236,000 tonnes the prior year.
BNEF projects that data centres will consume an average of 400,000 tonnes of copper annually over the next decade, with demand peaking at 572,000 tonnes in 2028. By 2035, the cumulative copper usage by the sector could exceed 4.3 million tonnes. This comes alongside higher requirements from other industries, including power transmission and wind energy, where copper consumption is forecast to almost double by 2035.
Meanwhile, China is boosting refined copper output by 7.5 to 12 percent this year, potentially setting a new record. As of mid‑2025, the country’s refined copper production increased 9.5 percent year‑on‑year, helping reduce reliance on imports.
BNEF estimates that copper prices could reach $13,500 per tonne in 2028. This outlook contrasts with recent market trends, as prices fell 20% at the end of July following US tariff announcements, with copper trading at $4.49 per lb on Tuesday.
A single large-scale data centre can use over 2,000 tonnes of copper, and wind farms require about 4 tonnes per megawatt. With North America’s data centre market set to more than double from US $33 billion in 2020 to 2030, demand from power, renewables, and electronics manufacturing will add to the projected 6 million-tonne supply gap by 2035.
