Soaring memory costs and tight supply chains weigh on PC demand, delaying a broader recovery until 2028.
Global notebook computer shipments are projected to fall 8 per cent year-on-year to 167.9 million units this year, suppressed by sluggish consumer demand, high component prices, and persistent supply constraints, according to the Market Intelligence and Consulting Institute (MIC).
The downturn is expected to persist into next year with a further 4.7 per cent decline to 160 million units, as elevated retail prices continue to damp consumer spending, MIC deputy director-general Edward Lin stated at a press conference in Taipei.
Lin noted that a full recovery in replacement demand is unlikely before 2028, when supply conditions for critical components are anticipated to ease and production costs decline.
Surging demand for artificial intelligence (AI) server infrastructure has caused widespread shortages of standard DRAM, high-bandwidth memory chips, high-end multilayer ceramic capacitors, advanced microscopic bridge substrates, build-up films, copper-clad laminates, and T-glass. While these bottlenecks are expected to last through 2028, shortages of NAND flash memory could begin easing by the end of next year.
Despite broader market headwinds, the adoption of AI-capable PCs is set to accelerate. MIC forecasts that AI PC market penetration will reach 76.1 per cent by 2028, up from a projected 54.1 per cent this year and 66.3 per cent next year.
Lin highlighted that the next growth phase for AI PCs will center on devices capable of executing complex, autonomous “agentic” workloads locally. Unlike basic conversational assistants, these systems carry out automated multi-step workflows, requiring significantly higher processing power and memory capacity.
He added that recent efforts by PC manufacturers to lower memory specifications to offset rising component costs represent a temporary tactic. While the strategy helps stabilise retail prices, under-powered hardware risks delivering a poor user experience and losing competitiveness as local AI functionality becomes an industry standard.
