- The report also said that in lowcost scenario 5G will be only used for enhancing the broadband speed
- In medium infrastructure cost scenario, restricting Huawei can increase the cost of building the 5G network by $ 500 million per year over the next decade
Restricting Huawei from rolling out 5G technology may lead to a loss of up to $63 billion in the GDP of the top eight technology markets and at least, $4.7 billion for India, by 2035. This has been claimed by a report of Oxford Economics commissioned by the Chinese telecom gear maker.
The US and Australia have blocked Huawei from deploying 5G infrastructure due to security concerns. Other markets like Canada, France, Germany, Japan and the UK governments have also announced that they are considering exclusion or have put partial restrictions.
Loss in the range of $ 4.7 billion to $27.8 billion
Huawei has been allowed to take part in 5G trials in India. The government has not taken any stand to restrict the company from building 5G network. The report has been compiled in December 2019 and it estimates three impact scenarios based on low, medium and high-cost 5G gear deployment in the eight technology market covered in the study. It projected that the investment cost in India will increase in the range of eight per cent to 27 per cent and GDP may suffer loss in the range of $ 4.7 billion to $27.8 billion if Huawei is restricted in India.
Oxford Economics also assumed that in low cost scenario 5G will be only used for enhancing broadband speed. It will also be used to support access to content that will require high bandwidth. In medium scenario, 5G will be used to deploy internet-of-things infrastructure where all machines can be controlled using internet. The high cost scenario will see the use of 5G in transport like driverless cars, healthcare, energy among others.
Reduce GDP in 2035 by $15.5 billion
According to Oxford Economics, in the medium technology cost scenario, it estimated that restricting competition in the network infrastructure market may reduce economic growth in India over the next 15 years significantly. It said that this can reduce GDP in 2035 by $15.5 billion.
Oxford Economics also said that in medium infrastructure cost scenario, restricting Huawei can increase the cost of building the 5G network by $ 500 million per year over the next decade with $200 million additional in low-cost scenario. It can add $700 million per year in high cost scenario.
The report also said that the increase in prices will translate into delays in rollout. It said that these delays will leave between 15.9 million and 45.3 million more people without access to 5G by 2023.
