Goldman Sachs says accelerating EV adoption could trim global oil demand by up to 0.32 million barrels per day by late 2027, with two- and three-wheelers driving the shift in Asia.
Accelerating electric vehicle (EV) adoption could significantly reduce global oil demand over the next two years, according to Goldman Sachs.
The investment bank said rising EV penetration, particularly across Asia, could cut global oil demand by up to 0.32 million barrels per day (bpd) by late 2027 under an accelerated adoption scenario.
Goldman Sachs noted that global EV car sales penetration rose by 3.4 percentage points to 26.1% last month, marking the second-highest level recorded so far.
According to Reuters, Under its “Temporary Acceleration” scenario, the bank estimates global oil demand could decline by around 0.13 million bpd by December 2027, assuming EV adoption rates remain at current levels. However, under its “Persistent Acceleration” scenario, where EV adoption continues growing in line with recent trends, demand loss could rise to 0.32 million bpd.
A major driver of this transition is the rapid adoption of electric two- and three-wheelers in emerging markets.
“Most notably, two-/three-wheeler EVs comprise a majority of total EV sales in India, Vietnam, and China and can displace a sizable one-third to one-half of the fuel that a passenger car EV can,” Goldman Sachs said.
The bank also noted that 12 of the world’s 15 largest EV markets have reported rising EV penetration, with China leading growth after recording an increase of 11.4 percentage points.
The findings highlight how growing EV adoption, especially in high-volume Asian markets, is beginning to influence long-term global energy demand patterns.
