Analysts expect SpaceX’s AI infrastructure business to generate strong near-term revenue from terrestrial data centres, while space-based computing remains years away.
SpaceX’s near-term artificial intelligence (AI) growth is expected to come from its widening terrestrial computing infrastructure rather than orbital data centres, according to a Reuters analysis of company filings and brokerage reports.
The company has already begun monetizing its AI infrastructure through computer agreements with enterprise customers including Anthropic, Google and Reflection AI for its Colossus supercomputer clusters. Reuters estimates these contracts could generate more than $28 billion in annual revenue, exceeding the company’s estimated $3.2 billion AI revenue in 2025 and surpassing revenue from its launch and Starlink businesses individually.
SpaceX invested nearly $18 billion in AI infrastructure and development in 2025, including about $12.7 billion in AI-related capital expenditure and $5.1 billion in AI research and development, Reuters reported. Its Colossus facilities currently provide around one gigawatt of AI computing capacity, with J.P. Morgan projects terrestrial capacity could increase to about nine gigawatts by 2029.
While Elon Musk has promoted the idea of space-based AI computing, analysts remain cautious about its commercial viability in the near term.
“The narrative that orbital AI will fundamentally disrupt terrestrial data centres is a little bit overblown,” Anthony Milovantsev, partner at Altman Solon, told Reuters.
Bank of America analysts also said orbital data centres remain an unproven long-term opportunity dependent on Starship achieving rapid reusability, lower launch costs and key technological milestones. For now, analysts expect terrestrial AI infrastructure to remain the primary driver of SpaceX’s growth and earnings.
