Driven by market alignment, innovation, and stability, India will witness over 100 million smartphone sales in H2 2024, reportedly boosting total annual sales to 155-158 million and a persistent 5G demand.
India is to sell over 100 million smartphones in the second half of 2024, pushing total annual sales to approximately 155-158 million units, according to a mid-year review published by Techarc. This increase represents a 7-9% rise in sales compared to the previous year.
Techarc has highlighted that the key drivers of this growth include the alignment of sales potential across various market segments, routine replacement and upgrade cycles, and innovations in AI, form factors, and colour/material/finish (CMF) that appeal to early adopters despite uncertain use cases.
Additionally, political and economic stability after the May elections, combined with advancements and a focus on lower-tier segments, is expected to boost smartphone sales and growth in 2024.
Faisal Kawoosa, Chief Analyst and Founder of Techarc, noted that smartphone OEMs’ strategic shifts post-COVID are expected to influence the Indian market in H2 2024 and beyond.
“Now, the OEMs are leveraging the technology waterfall and diversifying their portfolio across the customer segments they want to focus. This is a big shift and will drive a balanced growth in value-volume measures of the market,” he explained.
Techarc noted that 5G smartphones are standard across all price segments, with 70-75% of users expected to utilize 5G. Increased adoption in semi-urban and rural areas will drive demand for ₹8,000-12,000 5G models. By H2 2024, 80% of smartphones sold are projected to be 5G.
The report also predicted that innovations, led by AI and CMF advancements, is expected to stabilise revenue rather than boost it due to limited use cases. AI will extend replacement cycles with enhanced software features, while durable CMF improvements, like metal bodies, will increase smartphone lifespan by 50%.
Besides, foldable smartphones are gaining popularity, with an estimated 1 million units projected for 2024. Currently, six OEMs offer foldables, with 2-3 more expected by year-end. The top seven brands, Samsung, Redmi, realme, Vivo, OPPO, Apple, and OnePlus, will likely see a slight market share dip to 63-67%. In contrast, emerging brands like Motorola, Poco, iQOO, Nothing, CMF, Honor, and Lava will gain traction, bringing focus back to the top 20 brands.
Looking at the future, Techarc suggested that second half of 2024 will shape India’s smartphone industry for the next 2-3 years, requiring OEMs to accordingly adapt to market changes. Innovations must be framed as incremental improvements to manage consumer expectations.
Furthermore, technologies like 5G and AI must focus on maintaining revenue rather than generating superprofits, with emphasis on practical features like display quality and battery life. Marketing strategies must cater to different user segments, avoiding ‘premiumisation’ and highlighting genuine benefits to justify investments.
Techarc’s mid-year review is based on insights gathered from interactions with the smartphone ecosystem, including OEMs, component suppliers, and channel partners, as well as feedback from 10,000 consumers collected through online and offline surveys and analytics.
