Riding a wave of iPhone 17 upgrades and strong US-China sales, Apple is set to reclaim the global smartphone crown for the first time since 2011.
Apple is set to surpass Samsung as the world’s largest smartphone maker for the first time since 2011, driven by robust demand for the iPhone 17 series, according to Counterpoint Research. The research firm forecasts Apple will capture 19.4% of the global smartphone market this year, amid overall market growth of 3.3%. Shipments of the iPhone are expected to rise 10% in 2025, compared with Samsung’s 4.6% growth.
Apple’s new iPhone models, launched in September, have seen double-digit year-on-year sales increases in the US and China. Analysts cite strong replacement cycles, easing US-China trade tensions, and a weaker US dollar, which is boosting emerging-market sales.
Counterpoint analyst Yang Wang said, “Beyond the highly positive market reception for the iPhone 17 series, the key driver behind the upgraded shipment outlook lies in the replacement cycle reaching its inflection point. Consumers who purchased smartphones during the COVID-19 boom are now entering their upgrade phase. Furthermore, 358 million second-hand iPhones were sold between 2023 and Q2 2025.”
Early tracking data shows the iPhone 17 series outperforming the iPhone 16 series. Sales in the first six weeks rose 11% YoY in the US, 47% in China, and 8% in Japan. The base iPhone 17 led growth by offering Pro-level features at a lower price. Pro models also recorded gains thanks to enhanced cameras, processing and cooling. Only the iPhone Air underperformed due to limited availability in China in October.
Apple’s global sell-through share hit 24.2% in October 2025, its highest monthly level in more than a decade. The company’s smartphone volumes grew 12% year-on-year that month. China was the fastest-growing market, boosted by holiday promotions and an early start to the 11.11 sales period.
Research Director Jeff Fieldhack from Counterpoint added, “We expect Apple to end 2025 on a high, likely setting a fourth-quarter record in terms of sell-through volumes. Continued strong sales of the iPhone 17 series and a solid promotions season, covering Black Friday, Singles’ Day and the holiday season, are expected to help Apple push its Q4 and full-year 2025 volumes.”
Apple is expected to maintain the top position through 2029, supported by upcoming models, including a foldable iPhone and a budget-friendly iPhone 17e, as well as a major redesign planned for 2027.
