Surging iPhone demand, a surprise China rebound and rising ASPs are reshaping the 2025 smartphone outlook. A stronger and tougher 2026 is predicted for the global smartphone market.
Worldwide smartphone shipments are expected to rise 1.5% year-on-year (YoY) in 2025, to reach 1.25 billion units, according to the latest forecast from the International Data Corporation (IDC).
The outlook has been upgraded from IDC’s earlier projection of 1% growth, driven by Apple’s strong holiday-quarter performance, improving demand in emerging markets and early signs of stabilisation in China.
Perhaps marking a landmark year, Apple is expected to ship 247.4 million iPhones in 2025, marking 6.1% annual growth, up from 3.9% in the previous cycle. “Apple is set to have a record year in 2025, thanks to the phenomenal success of its latest iPhone 17 series,” said Nabila Popal, senior research director at IDC.
The iPhone maker has surged ahead in China, its largest market, capturing more than 20% share in both October and November. IDC has revised Apple’s China forecast for Q4 from 9% growth to 17%, turning what had been a projected 1% decline for 2025 into 3% growth.
Apple’s 2025 iPhone revenue is now expected to exceed US$261 billion, reflecting 7.2% YoY growth.
However, the momentum will not carry into 2026. A 0.9% decline is forecasted in shipments next year, reversing an earlier expectation of 1.2% growth. The slowdown is attributed to a global shortage of memory components, rising bill-of-materials costs, and Apple’s decision to delay the next base iPhone model from late 2026 to early 2027. This shift is set to reduce iOS shipments by 4.2% in 2026.
The shortage is also expected to push average selling prices higher. The global smartphone ASP is set to reach US$465 in 2026, driving total market value to a record US$578.9 billion, despite the unit decline.
“As memory components become more limited and more expensive, manufacturers face increasing pressure to raise prices,” said Anthony Scarsella, research director at IDC.
