PC shipments surged in FY25, driven by Windows 11 upgrades and pre-tariff stockpiling, but late-year declines hint at turbulence ahead for the global market.
Worldwide PC shipments witnessed an upswing in the first three quarters of 2025, but data from International Data Corporation (IDC) suggests that momentum may be waning as global economic headwinds and market saturation begin to weigh on growth.
According to recent figures, quarterly PC shipments peaked at over 73 million units in Q3 2025, marking the year’s highest volume. This followed a steady rise from 63.5 million in Q1 to approximately 68.5 million units in Q2.
However, Q4 saw a sharp decline to around 68 million, reflecting a downturn in market demand. The annual growth rate, which stood at over 6% mid-year, slid to -1.5% by the fourth quarter—raising concerns over sustainability.
Despite this late-year deceleration, IDC has revised its global PC forecast upwards. Total shipments are now expected to reach 274 million units in 2025, representing a 4.1% increase over the previous year.
“The 90-day pause and tariffs exemption applied to personal computers, combined with a definite level of uncertainty on what will happen after the 90-day pause, is motivating PC manufacturers to seize the moment and ship larger than anticipated volumes in the US,” said Jean Philippe Bouchard, research VP with IDC‘s Worldwide PC Trackers.
While manufacturers have capitalised on favourable conditions in the short term, long-term outlooks remain mixed. It is anticipated that a modest contraction in 2026, driven by market stabilisation following widespread Windows 11 adoption and tougher year-over-year comparisons.
In EMEA, the trajectory appears slightly more optimistic. “Despite budget pressures on organisations, EMEA’s traditional PC market is set to grow through Q2 2025 and beyond, driven by the end of Windows 10 support and COVID-era refresh cycles,” noted Malini Paul, senior research manager of Devices Research.
“While enterprises and the public sector led early demand, accelerating upgrades from SMBs are poised to be the real game changers in the second half of the year,” she said.
However, concerns remain. The drop in Q4 shipments and the dip into negative annual growth suggest that inflationary pressures, consumer hesitancy, and geopolitical uncertainty, particularly from US tariff impacts, could be curbing demand.
For now, 2025 remains on course to deliver growth. But with the market showing signs of cooling, industry watchers are preparing for a more tempered 2026.
